Research & Notes

Borrowed Conviction

The second-order cost of abundant information

Access to information is no longer the scarce resource for most investors; judgement is. This essay looks at how repeated exposure to other people's interpretations can produce conviction that feels independent but was not built through primary work, and why that only becomes visible when a position goes against you. It ends with a practical discipline: separate discovery from diligence, and know how you came to believe what you believe.

Being Early, Being Wrong, and Still Getting Paid

Written during the February 2026 sell-off in software shares, this piece asks whether a sharp fall is a temporary drawdown or the start of a structural decline, and what being right actually requires. The argument is about decisions under uncertainty: position sizes that can absorb normal damage, the temperament to sit through it, and conviction defined by the specific facts that would change your mind.